It makes sense: as economic uncertainty deepens and savings shrink, families are looking for higher education bargains. The current application season seems to be showing that more students are snubbing pricey private colleges and turning to state schools where their dollars go further. Barmak Nassirian, spokesman for the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers cautions, however, that although “we’re all speculating that privates will see a decline while publics will gain…it’s way too early to know.”

But it’s not too early to examine what that scenario, if it does indeed play out, will mean in April when those decision letters arrive. State schools are particularly attractive to residents, who are typically charged much less than out-of-state students. That means colleges will have a larger pool of local students, and the admissions criteria for those students will toughen. Thus the state-university-as-safety-school rule might not apply. In fact, those schools could become more competitive across the board, no matter where the applicant lives.

On the flip side, if your college savings haven’t taken a hit, or your grades and test scores put you in the running for merit aid, you could end up getting accepted at a highly selective school that last year would have rejected you. Those schools are already reporting that applications are down (Middlebury College, for example, is down about 10 percent), and they have the same number of slots in their freshman classes as they did last year.

Juniors and their parents, as well as guidance counselors, need to keep an eye on this trend. If state schools do experience much higher application numbers while private colleges’ numbers decrease, the process of school selection is going to be markedly different than it was just a year ago. Next fall, pay attention to the reported number of applications and acceptance rates of the schools you’re interested in, and compare them with the 2008-2009 season. The colleges you once classified as safeties and reaches could be shifting from those categories.